How has age and tenure (freehold and leasehold) affected the capital appreciation of private condos in the past five years?
Updated Sep 2026: The original 2020 study is kept below. I re-ran it on 2021–2026 URA resale data across 501 condos — see 2026 update near the end. The main finding still holds and is now clearer: 99-year leasehold condos aged 11–30 years did best, and brand-new freehold did worst.
We often ask how age and tenure (freehold vs leasehold) affect capital appreciation — and thus return on investment. In this study I analysed 87 private condominiums to see how age and tenure affected capital appreciation over the past five years (as at the original research window).
These 87 were filtered from a much larger universe (~2,800 condos): they showed annualised capital growth above 3% over five years and had more than 180 residential units. Age here means years from TOP.
Important: This is a historical study (published Mar 2020) using SRX Analyzer data of the day. It is not a prediction for the next five years. Other factors (MRT distance, estate transformations, rental yield, build quality) matter. Consult a trusted salesperson before acting.
How does age affect capital appreciation?
Among the 87, younger developments took a larger share of strong capital appreciation. About 32% of properties with at least 3% annualised gain over five years were 10 years and below.
Within that group, a large majority (~86%) were age five and below. Implication: for a ~5-year investment horizon, brand-new private stock tended to appear more often in the “strong gainer” set in this sample.
(Original post included charts of age vs capital appreciation; findings are summarised in text.)
Capital appreciation — freehold vs 99-year leasehold
By tenure, 99-year leasehold and freehold each took about 45% of the sample of strong gainers. If 999-year stock is grouped with freehold (practically freehold for human horizons), freehold-type tenure looks more attractive on headcount alone.
Stop before you only buy brand-new freehold: the age breakdown by tenure is more interesting.
Age of freehold vs capital gain
Freehold (including 999-year) performed well in the 11–30 year band — about 71% of freehold strong-gainers sat there. Rationale in the original essay: freehold is often priced higher at launch, then catches up given enough time — until facilities age past ~30 years and appeal softens.
Age of 99-year leasehold vs capital gain
For 99-year leasehold, younger condos formed the bulk of strong five-year gainers. Interestingly, leasehold over 31 years also took a larger share than the 11–30 band in this sample — raw data suggested many 31+ projects still posted at least ~4% annualised gain over five years (en-bloc potential was one hypothesis in the original piece).
2026 update: the same question, five years on
Method (different from the original — read before comparing). The original study took only the 87 condos that gained ≥3% a year, then asked which ages and tenures appeared most often. This time I used every condo or apartment project with enough resales to measure: at least 5 resales in 2021 and at least 5 in Jul 2025–Jun 2026. That gives 501 projects. For each project I took the median resale PSF in each window and turned the change into an annualised rate. Age is years since TOP as at 2021. Freehold includes 999-year leases. Data: URA private caveats. Rental income, costs and stamp duties are not included, so this is price only, not total return.
| Age at start (2021) | All projects | 99-yr leasehold | Freehold / 999 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–5 years | 3.8% (89) | 4.1% (71) | 2.7% (18) |
| 6–10 years | 4.6% (150) | 5.7% (79) | 3.6% (71) |
| 11–20 years | 5.9% (137) | 6.3% (71) | 5.3% (66) |
| 21–30 years | 5.9% (105) | 6.2% (56) | 5.4% (49) |
| 31+ years | 4.2% (20) | 4.2% (10) | 4.3% (10) |
| All | 5.3% (501) |
Median annualised price growth, 2021 → mid-2026. Number of projects in brackets.
Other ways to read the same data:
- Share of projects gaining 7%+ a year: 37% of leasehold condos aged 11–20, but only 6% of those aged 0–5.
- Share gaining under 3% a year: 61% of brand-new freehold (0–5 years) and 38% of freehold aged 6–10, against 4% of leasehold aged 21–30.
What this says compared with 2020:
- Newest is no longer the best short-horizon bet. In 2020, many of the strong gainers were five years old or younger. In 2021–2026 that group had the lowest median. Most bought at launch prices that already assumed future growth, and resale prices then had to catch up with that.
- Leasehold beat freehold at every age up to 30. The gap is biggest when young: 5.7% vs 3.6% at 6–10 years. Freehold's launch premium takes a long time to earn back. This agrees with the 2020 conclusion.
- The best results were in the 11–30 year band. Older condos had a lower PSF to start from. As new-launch prices rose past S$2,500–3,000 psf, buyers moved to cheaper resale units.
- 31+ years is a small group and it split. Some older condos rose on en-bloc hopes; most did not. With only 20 projects, do not read too much into this row.
- Lease decay is a real risk in the long run. Once the remaining lease cannot cover the youngest buyer to age 95, CPF use is pro-rated, and banks look at the remaining lease too. An older leasehold with strong past returns can still be harder to sell in 10 years. See loan tenure & LTV.
Same caveat as the original: this is history, not a forecast. Location, MRT access, stack and entry price still decide the result for any single unit.
Conclusion
In general, brand-new or newer leasehold often showed better short-horizon capital appreciation than brand-new freehold in this sample. Over time, freehold tended to regain momentum, while only selected older leaseholds (e.g. en-bloc stories) could outrun freehold after 30+.
Choose new vs old and freehold vs leasehold only after you fix horizon, expectation, and strategy.
Original 2020 data extracted using SRX Analyzer; 2026 update uses URA private caveat data (resales to Jun 2026). Information only — not sole basis for a purchase decision.
See also
Next step
Shortlisting freehold vs leasehold for a fixed horizon? Send the brief on WhatsApp — we run peer comparison before capital is committed.